Portfolio-as-a-bankroll: Applying risk-of-ruin formulas
Portfolio-as-a-Bankroll: Applying Risk-of-Ruin Formulas to SEO Strategy Executive Summary The digital marketing landscape operates in an environment of profound uncertainty—algorithm updates shift traffic overnight, competitor tactics evolve unpredictably, and user behavior changes with cultural currents. Despite this inherent volatility, most SEO practitioners approach strategy with deterministic, "best practice" frameworks that ignore the mathematical realities of risk management. This paper proposes a paradigm shift: treating an SEO portfolio not as a collection of keywords or domains, but as a bankroll to be managed using formal risk-of-ruin (RoR) formulas borrowed from probability theory, gambling mathematics, and quantitative finance. By reconceptualizing SEO investment through the lens of the Kelly Criterion , Monte Carlo simulations , and ruin probability mathematics, we can construct portfolios that maximize long-term growth while minimizing the probability of cata...